THE POLITICAL SCENE
Mamidipudi Pattabhiram
Now that the country is preparing for the
polls to the Lok Sabha and the State Assemblies of Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala,
West Bengal and Haryana and the Union Territory of Pondicherry this quarter’s
political analysis will be confined to the electoral scene as obtaining
at the time of writing. The question
that is uppermost in the minds of all citizens is whether the Congress (I) will
come back to power at the Centre. While it is difficult to hazard a guess what
can be said with certainty is that even the Opposition parties have position to
present a viable alternative to the Congress (l). Thus the Congress (0 starts
with an advantage and how exactly it will convert this into votes will be
watched with great interest. The plan of the article is first to give a general
picture and then go on to some specifics as for instance the position in
Kashmir. In Anmachal Pradesh there is a threat of boycott of the poll while in
Uttar Pradesh the people of Uttarakhand are not willing to participate in the
elections to the four Lok Sabha seats. There is a brief survey of the status of
the Janata Dal in U.P. which returns 85 members to the Lok Sabha. With less
than a month for the general elections to the Lok Sabha and five State Assemblies
and one Union Territory, political parties are stepping up their campaign even
as the poll manifestos of important parties have been released. The efforts to
forge viable electoral combinations have more or less reached a final stage
although one could discern streaks of dissatisfaction with personal animosities
getting the better of even real politik. The ruling Congress (I) at the Centre
and its main rivals - the
BJP and the Janata Dal - led National
Front - have almost completed the process of selecting their candidates and
since nominations close on April 3 actually the number of days available has
been cut short owing to some holidays - party leaders are working overtime. What distinguishes the election of 1996 is the total absence
of what had come to be known as the Nehru-Gandhi style of leadership
which relied heavily on individual charisma, populist measures and absolute
personal loyalty to the leader. The Prime Minister, Mr. P. V. Narasimha Rao,
enjoys almost no mass base and yet he has been able to make an impression by
stressing that there is a Lakshmana rekha for vote bank politics. On the other
hand, the BJP has suffered on erosion of credibility during recent months
thanks to the ugly developments in Gujarat where the party is holding power.
The constitutional mandate is a secular-democracy with every citizen free to
propagate the religion of his or her choice provided there is no infringement
of the rights of others. Abuse of religion or political purposes is ‘not
permitted and yet’ the Sangh Parivar was know to have carried things to excess
by its campaign of hatred and intolerance when the occasion presented itself.
The Janata Dal is a pale shadow of what it was in 1991 and its alliance with
the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh from where the largest contingent of 85
for any State is sent to the Lok Sabha typifies its fallen strength. It is
going to contest only 16 seats while the party’s position is slightly better in
Bihar, more because the party happens to be in power under the leadership of
Mr. Laloo Prasad. The Leftist parties are confined to select pockets and all in
all the picture is one of great uncertainty right now. Mr. Arjun Singh and Mr.
N.D. Tiwari aided and abetted by people like Mr. M. L. Fotedar who have no
roots anywhere and helped by some Rajiv loyalists have set up a new
organisation to fight the elections but its impact judged by its strength could
well be nothing. The national parties will no doubt have to reckon with the
presence of powerful regional leaders and even as the battle lines of the
forthcoming elections are drawn, while corruption and political ineptitude
might provide the trimming, the actual contest will be among the competing
principles of federalism and centralism - examples of which are
the Akali Dal in Punjab, AGP in Assam, the Dravidian Parties in Tamil Nadu and
the Telugu Desam in Andhra Pradesh. It is pity that the National Conference
under the leadership of Mr. Farooq Abdullah who has been asking for a return of
the pre 1953 position in Kashmir. (again an
illustration of State autonomy demand) has decided not to contest the poll to
the Lok Sabha in Jammu and Kashmir. It is this kind of negative attitude that
will not help in restoring popular rule in the tormented State. Dr. Farooq
Abdullah could have taken a more reasoned stand and establish his credentials
as a leader with a following and thus set an example to the others. The
electoral picture is not rosy everywhere as, for instance, in the hill
districts of Uttar Pradesh where the people seem to be against elections for
the four Lok Sabha seats until their demand or a separate Uttarkhand is
conceded. The Election Commission had drawn up the poll schedule and a model
code of conduct keeping all important political factors in mind. There is a slight
variation of dates in Kashmir where the poll will end on May 30. But there is
no ease for stopping counting as planned even if the results could be announced
after the poll had been completed in Kashmir. Keeping ballot boxes safe is a
big hazard and the risk is not worth taking.
It was expected even when the Government had
announced that elections to the Lok Sabha would be held in Jammu and Kashmir
along with the rest of the country that pro-Pakistani elements and the
militants thriving with the patronage extended to them by the hostile neighbour
will create disturbances right from now if only to put obstacles in the way of
a peaceful conduct of the democratic exercise. The security forces had,
therefore, strengthened their vigilance apparatus, the results of which could
be seen from the fact that pro-Pakistani desperados who had gathered at the
famous Hazaratbal shrine were intercepted, and in the ensuring gunfire atleast
one important militant stated to be some sort of a military adviser was killed.
Even the JKLF which has been claiming to be an independent body, not
under the control of Pakistan, has started giving trouble the moment elections
were announced. This is surprising in the context
of the Government’s declared intention to open a dialogue with the militant
leaders to whatever section they belonged in a bid to find a lasting solution
to the Kashmir problem. The JKLF activists too were trying to enter the
Hazaratbal shrine to create the kind of ugly situation that arose over three
years ago but their attempts were totally foiled by the Special Operational
Group of Jammu and Kashmir Police but not before seven militants were
killed.
This is a serious blow to the JKLF which must realise that the Government is determined to curb militancy at any cost. All this is unfortunate especially when a fresh opportunity was being given to the people of the state to assert their democratic right to elect their representatives to the national Parliament. It is indeed for the more organised militant groups like the JKLF to come out in the open and subscribe to the democratic path and show the outside world the support they have within the State. Yet the face of the matter is that the people of the tormented State are fed up with the activities of the extremists, and outfits like the JKLF do feel that they will not get any support from the electorate. The more hard-core militants have spoiled their case sufficiently in the eyes of the population. There was a time when the Mirwaiz could speak with the authority of a religious leader but there are now serious doubts whether he could mobilise the Valley to a recognisable extent. All this leads to the inevitable conclusion that it is the political parties, including the National Conference, that must try to mobilise public opinion to ensure that the Lok Sabha polls are not disturbed.
Of course the security forces are going to be deployed in full strength to ensure that all those who are desirous of voting are able to exercise their franchise without fear. For the Government the successful conduct of the polls to the Lok Sabha is extremely important in as much as on it depends its next move to hold elections to the State Assembly. It is easy to dub the Government’s efforts as a calculated move to install an elected Government, furnish it with extraordinary powers in the belief that armed action under democratic cover will restore normality. But this kind of political cynicism may not be warranted especially in the context of the genuine efforts being made to end the President’s rule before the current term expires in July. It is just now that the Government is being seen to have a coherent, pragmatic policy on Kashmir and the Prime Minister, Mr. P.V. Narsimha Rao, should address the particular problem of winning over leaders to hold talks and thus clinch the issue that has been evading a solution for too long. Dr. Farooq Abdullah and his colleagues in the National Conference are no more in a position to doubt the true intentions of the Government which of late has been adopting a flexible approach to the grievances in the Valley. Pakistan’s reaction to the holding of elections in Kashmir is on expected lines and this should not deter the Government from pursuing the patriot has chosen. The overall strategy of the Government is definitely positive based on the assumption that the situation is now not hopeless.
A serious situation is developing in the
remote north-east State of Arunachal Pradesh following the demand of all the
parties, including the ruling Congress (I) that the Centre should come out with
a decision on the Chakma and Hajong refugees immediately. They have warned that
if the problem is not settled to their satisfaction they would boycott the
coming polls to the Lok Sabha from the State. That the ruling Congress (I)
Chief Minister, Mr. Gegong Apang, is also a party to the decision indicates
that the matter is not a party issue and the demand is universal transcending
all political barriers. The Centre is fully aware of the developments in the
sensitive State but has so far not cared to intervene effectively. Nor has it
persuaded the Chief Minister not to take up an extreme position as the problem
at issue does not admit of any easy solution and it has wide ramifications
which have to be taken note of before a final decision could be taken.
At one time tempers ran so high that all the
60 members of the State Assembly decided to quit but better sense seems to have
prevailed and they did not take the extreme step. Mr. Apang is no novice to
Government and his major qualification for enjoying the Centre’s confidence is
the apparent distinction he shares with Mr. Jyoti Basu as the longest serving
Chief Minister in the North East. An astute politician, he not only sailed
through unscathed during the brief tenure of Mr. V. P. Singh as Prime Minister
but also enhanced his reputation by destroying the State unit of the Janata Dal
following which all the seven members of the party joined the Congress (I). For
quite some time there has been a vigorous agitation that the Chakmas who had
come from the erstwhile East Pakistan - in fact they were
rehabilitated in the former NEF A now known as Arunachal Pradesh by the Centre - should be dispersed to the other States or even sent back to
Bangladesh. The united Liberation Volunteers of Arunachal and the United
People’s Volunteers of Arunachal, both devoid of ideology, have been working
for the ouster of the Chakmas and the growing unemployment in the State has
forced many young persons to join these outfits. In the beginning no notice was
taken of their activities but soon enough they had become so aggressive that
the Government had to intervene.
The Chakmas were settled in the mid-sixties
in the Lohit, Changlang and Lower Subansiri areas and it is now the third
generation of Chakmas that could be seen in the State. The problem of Chakmas
in Tripura is, however of recent origin, comparatively speaking, and they have
all along been in transit camps and efforts are being taken to send them back
to the Chittagong Hill Tracts from where they had originally migrated. But the
Chakmas in Arunachal Pradesh have over the years become natives of Arunachal
Pradesh as it were and it would be next to impossible to drive them out at this
stage. However all the political parties had made the Chakma problem an
election issue during the poll to the State Assembly and the Chief Minister too
is committed to forcing them out of the State. The politicians of the State
have charged the Centre of indifference and apathy to the feelings of the
indigenous people and had even charged that it had taken a pro-Chakma stand. An
all party resolution last week said that the failure of the Central government
to solve the issue has provoked the people to such an extent that it would not
be possible for any party to participate in the coming elections. The Supreme
Court had only recently warned the State Government that any lapse on its part
to protect the Chakmas would not be tolerated. It is now for the Centre to make
some quick moves to avert a Simbou which could well turn out to unparalled in
the annals of electoral politics in the country.
All eyes are on Uttar Pradesh considering
that the State returns 85 members to the Lok Sabha and, precisely for this
reason, the Janata Dal has worked hard to forge an alliance with the Samajwadi
Party which is fast turning out to be an important political outfit in the
State. For the Janata Dal which itself is splintered after the formation of the
Samata Party which took away 14 of its 44 members in the Lok Sabha it has been
a question of life and death and although it had the option to enter into an
alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party of Mr. Kanshi Ram it has decided to seek
a poll pact with the Samajwadi Party led by Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav. The Janata
Dal obviously thinks that the Congress (I) is not a formidable foe in Uttar
Pradesh. The desertion of Mr. N. D. Tiwari from the Congress (I) has doubtless
weakened the party by providing him with an emotional handle but the general
view seems to be that Mr. Tiwari’s stirrings were a fallout of the Congress (I)
is own squabbles and a cover for challenging the Prime Minister. The State
Congress (I) is splintered into innumerable factions and mired in personality
clashes and following the exit of Mr. Tiwari and his colleagues the confusion
had become unbearable for the party workers.
In the last several months nothing has been
done to revitalise the Congress (I) in U.P. which at one time was the bastion
of the Congress (I). The split between the BSP and the Samajwadi Party of Mr.
Mulayam Singh Yadav has come in handy for the Janata Dal to fish in troubled
waters and it goes to the credit of the Janata Dal leaders who ultimately
succeeded in bringing the Samajwadi Party closer to their party. Of course seat
adjustments are going to provide some anxious moments for both the parties but
as the Janata Dal is aiming to forge an alternative to the Congress (I) at the
Centre it could be expected to adopt a policy of give and take in a big way
without jeopardising its own chances. The Janata Dal still forms the major
constituent of the National Front and the next step will be to give shape to a
National Front-Left combine. The Chief Minister of Bihar, Mr. Laloo Prasad
Yadav, who at one time scoffed at the very idea of making up with Mr. Mulayam Singh
Yadav has finally yielded to pressure from his senior colleagues. With the BSP
leader dead against Mr. Mulayam Singh Yadav, there was no way of roping his
party into the alliance sponsored by the Janata Dal and for the time bieing the
Dal will have to stick to the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh.
7-4-1996